CDC giving incorrect numbers for vaccine effectiveness against hospitalizations and deaths.
Copyright 2022 Robert Clark
I. Data from other countries shows similarity in numbers of hospitalizations/deaths numbers between vaccinated and unvaccinated.
It’s well-known the vaccine effectiveness against COVID infection has been waning for months. And with the omicron variant it’s essentially zero(or worse.) However, recent data from the UK, Scotland, Denmark, and Canada, which collect some of the most accurate COVID data, has shown that not just is there a waning of efficacy of the vaccine against infection but also waning efficacy against hospitalizations and deaths. If this is true then it is extremely important to know since a justification to continue vaccination is the supposed high effectiveness against hospitalizations and deaths.
This problem has become so bad that in Scotland the public health agency has decided to stop providing these numbers.
In Denmark also the rates of hospitalizations for the vaccinated and unvaccinated are also approximated equal:
Note this can not be attributed to the large number of vaccinated in Denmark because the vaccination rate in Denmark is close to this same number 83%.
A similar scenario now holds in Canada:
Again this can not be attributed to the high vaccination rates in Canada since 77% of Canadians are fully vaccinated. So hospitalization rates for vaccinated and unvaccinated are approximately the same, not the 10 times or higher advantage against hospitalization frequently cited by the CDC for being vaccinated.
II. JAMA published reports showing hospitalizations/deaths close for vaccinated and unvaccinated.
It has been revealed the CDC has not been completely open about what the actual numbers are.
CDC under fire for allegedly withholding COVID-19 data
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is under fire for failing to publish data related to the COVID-19 pandemic about hospitalizations and the efficacy of booster shots. Apoorva Mandavilli, a reporter with the New York Times, which first reported the story, joined CBS News to discuss. FEB 23, 2022
In addition to the data from other countries showing hosp./deaths approx. equal for vaccinated and unvaccinated, two separate JAMA reports also show this:
December 28, 2021
Association Between Immune Dysfunction and COVID-19 Breakthrough Infection After SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination in the US
Jing Sun, MD, et al.
JAMA Intern Med. 2022;182(2):153-162. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2021.7024
You see in the panel for those without immune dysfunction, the percentages for both outpatient visits and inpatient hospitalization are approx. the same.
Another JAMA article shows the percentages for deaths from COVID again within just a few percentage points difference between the vaccinated and unvaccinated:
November 4, 2021
Association Between mRNA Vaccination and COVID-19 Hospitalization and Disease Severity
Mark W. Tenforde, MD, et al.
JAMA. 2021;326(20):2043-2054. doi:10.1001/jama.2021.19499
You see the percentages for deaths from COVID in the bottom row are only a few percentage points different between the vaccinated and unvaccinated.
The percentages for progression to severe outcomes in the first row is about twice as high for the unvaccinated but even this would correspond to only about 50% efficacy of the vaccine in prevention to severe outcomes, not the 10 to 20 times risk reduction cited by the CDC.
Quite important also is this was for cases from March to August. So for many cases this was before the vaccine efficacy began to wane and it was also for many cases before the delta variant became dominant, with its reduced vaccine efficacy. It would be interesting to see the data for the cases towards the end of the period in August.
III. Raw Data for hospitalizations from Minnesota show close numbers for vaccinated and unvaccinated.
This page gives the COVID status for the state of Minnesota:
COVID-19 Vaccine Breakthrough Weekly Update
Updated March 7, 2022
Updated weekly, on Mondays at 11 a.m.
This gives the “adjusted” numbers for hospitalizations and deaths, indicating high efficacy for the vaccine on these measures. The CDC takes its numbers from numbers like these provided by the states.
However, on this page is a link to the raw numbers of Minnesota for hospitalizations and deaths as an Excel file:
You see the counts for hospitalizations and deaths are similar. The fully vaccinated rate in Minnesota is about 68%. Since the ratio of vaccinated to unvaccinated is about 2 to 1, from the fact the hospitalizations and deaths are comparable we can conclude the efficacy of the vaccine on these measures is only about 50%, well-below the 10 to 20 times risk reduction cited by the CDC.
IV. Booster can only provide short-term solution.
The CDC also has stated the boosters provide better protection than just two shots against hosp./deaths. But again in other countries the protection for the booster is also waning. Indeed while the two shots regimen had been estimated to provide protection for 6 months, for the booster this has estimated to only be about 3 months. Then perhaps a fourth shot after that? Unfortunately in Israel the fourth shot protection was found to be even shorter than for the booster. So short in fact that it wasn’t worth getting:
Israeli trial, world’s first, finds 4th dose ‘not good enough’ against Omicron
Expert at Sheba Medical Center says jab raises COVID antibody levels, but there are ‘still a lot of infections’ among those who received it
By TOI STAFF17 January 2022, 7:40 pmUpdated: 18 January 2022, 8:21 am